"I'm not even sure what I need or don't need."
You need:
a good cutting tool. Scissors to start Fiskars will do but a good knife might be better once you become serious.
rotary hole punch or set of the straight punches
a good sharp awl - I like my curved one, but most like straight. The one with the red handle is a bit too thin. Most people like a beefier handle. Mine is partly hidden by the silver buckle, but it is good enough to get the idea. (some people cheat and use a drill press and 1/64th bit to make their stitching holes.
round point leather-working needles
you need to decide whether you want artificial sinew which beginners seem to like, the expensive waxed thread that the shops like to sell or if you want to jump right into the linen thread which you need to run through wax as you use it.
(I bought a huge roll of this from Cheaper Than Dirt years ago and have not needed any since.)
a stitching wheel in order to keep your stitches even. (the changeable wheel type will work for now)
a tool to mark the line of stitching. This can be the type which cuts a groove and the kind that presses a trough. Both work well and have a place in the tool box.
"As with all new hobbies or projects about 1/2 to 3/4 of the crap that I get is never used."
I doubt that any of these will remain unused for long.
From here, you might need stains, (Fiebings oil based) edge finish dressing (Gum Tragacanth) a means of boning the leather, (bit of antler or a plastic slicker tool)
Here is a quick look at my kit. Not complete - just what I had in it from a recent project:
(The roll bag was a proto-type for a fork bag on my Harley. I toss my tools in it for convenience and so I do not *** myself with the sharp items.)
Good luck - show us something that you make soon!
CS