Nope. Lead never shrinks once cooled. That's why plumbers use it to seal iron pipe joints.
It's a stable element - nothing to evaporate or dissolve off to cause it to shrink.
Actually it is just the opposite. Lead will "grow"...not much but some.
Now here is the kicker...Conical and roundball bullets will grow with age, I'm told that process stops after about 14 / 16 months, sometimes before.
I had several hundred 530gr Postell that were cast, and measured, at .459 (The alloy was supposed to be 20:1)
I put them in a coffee can, and two years later I decided to use them, so I just loaded about fifty without checking anything and....... they would not chamber!
I had to pull all fifty! They measured an honest .4605, I don't own a mould that will cast a bullet that large.
They had "grown" .0025!
Also, If you size the bullet after casting, or heat treat the bullet for hardness, it won't change it's diameter, but that is something that is done by the BP cartridge shooter, and not so much for muzzleloading.
Many BPCR shooters report this as fact.
The only "shrinkage" I'm aware of involves wheel weights, or high volumes of tin. A mould that casts a .535 roundball using pure lead, will normally cast a ball around of .533 using wheel weights. Many folks use Lee Alox, with "thrice" dipped round ball, to bring them back up to .535 without having to change the patch.
Russ