Will the bottom fall out of the custom build business?

[TDM]

200 people out of 335,000,000. Just sayin! Maybe five hundred rifles total a year. I would guess less. Maybe by a lot. What is the average age of the people ordering the custom rifles and pistols. I would bet it is mostly all older shooters and collectors. There is enough work for the time being to keep the builders busy but will that be the case ten years from now.

I agree, wish the situation was different. But how many members are on this forum, isn’t it something like 21k? Even if that’s only a 1/10 of ML shooters, we’re only talking 200k. And how many of those actually burn a few pounds of powder a year? We are a small, aging group.

 

[smo]

I understand you point Hawk, but what I’m saying is they’re selling more guns now than 10 years ago..
It maybe the older population buying them, I’m not sure , but someone is.

I was only referring too the two builders mentioned, that was their backlog..

There are many more builders scattered across the Country, and if they can build a decent gun, they’re back logged too..

 

[Hawk54]

I understand you point Hawk, but what I’m saying is they’re selling more guns now than 10 years ago..
It maybe the older population buying them, I’m not sure , but someone is.

I was only referring too the two builders mentioned, that was their backlog..

There are many more builders scattered across the Country, and if they can build a decent gun, they’re back logged too..

I think it is a lot of the older black powder shooters have more disposable income now than ten years ago. I am not discounting some younger buyers but i would still bet the vast majority of the builders are making firearms for older collectors and shooters.

 

[david w]

I think it is a lot of the older black powder shooters have more disposable income now than ten years ago. I am not discounting some younger buyers but i would still bet the vast majority of the builders are making firearms for older collectors and shooters.

That, and I don't think too many men in our older generation ran around in dresses. If my kindergarten teacher told me I was transgender, I would have given her a bloody nose. I may have had to stand on a chair to do it, but nonetheless. My parents would have been on my side!

 

[Mzzlldrinpa]

I once heard it said that muzzleloading is something you get into when you are done with everything else. Definitely finding the truth in that. The guys that I used to shoot with have just stopped shooting all together. The guys coming in are younger and filling their spots. Nobody in their 20s, late 30s early 40s. Muzzleloading I guess is in my blood? My dad was doing it in the early 80s and for the most part I've been doing with him. Except when I was smarter than him and went off to do something else. I came back to it when I was done with the other stuff. I think as far as the custom guns, there will be a market. It will probably be smaller as folks find they want better equipment as they progress in the hobby.

 

[Hayes Cooper]

I love the custom guns but not waiting 5 years for the builder I want that wants almost a thousand bucks of my money to wait, another wants 60% up front, the myth of the “ must have” is getting replaced by kits that I can add a patch box, little bit of inlay and have an accurate rifle for about 1500 bucks, it’s a hobby, not a way of life and I can’t justify waiting years when I might be dead by then!

 

[Art Caputo]

when people buy custom guns they do it because they want something specific to them. They want a gun that is suitable to their taste and needs and I doubt resail value is a concern. I would be willing to bet most would prefer to hand down the rifle than to sell it when the time comes.

Exactly!

 

[Jedidiah]

I've never been interested in purchasing a custom rifle/musket mostly because they don't pass my personal cost/value/enjoyment scale threshold. When I buy expensive arms they are generally historic or investments. However, I can appreciate true craftsmanship when I see it and I find no fault in what others do with their money based on their own personal value scale. But when I read through the various opinions on this forum and others about the future state of the hobby, I wonder whether the value of an expensive custom rifle/musket is holding up, or will hold up over time. I'm not referring to Gusler from scratch builds or the like, but to the custom longarms from builders that source and use basically the same high-quality locks and barrels that are available to all of them and sell those $3K/$4K/$5k+ flintlocks. Seems to me that type of custom build that is valued primarily on its craftsmanship will not have much of a future market to maintain that value. Especially, as more and more come to market.

For those who have an interest and buy or have sold those types of custom longarms, have you seen any impacts in the resale or purchase prices over the last few years? Are prices relatively stable and fewer of the best builders are actually doing business? Is it the complete opposite, with market, value, and, prices increasing? Or, are there other dynamics at play?

Who cares? If its all about the money ,you need to do something else. IMHO

 

[Jedidiah]

I love the custom guns but not waiting 5 years for the builder I want that wants almost a thousand bucks of my money to wait, another wants 60% up front, the myth of the “ must have” is getting replaced by kits that I can add a patch box, little bit of inlay and have an accurate rifle for about 1500 bucks, it’s a hobby, not a way of life and I can’t justify waiting years when I might be dead by then!

this says it all. "it’s a hobby, not a way of life "...its time everyone figured that out for themselves and realize that in 20 yrs we will be lucky if anyone is shooting ML,BP etc or anything for that matter. Also, only those with large amounts of disposable income will be having anything "custom" built and then only a few pieces. I'm sorry, but there isn't a firearm in the world that I would pay $5 grand for. Sorry, not happening. I have owned over 400 firearms in my life, bought & sold, still have a decent number. I have one or two modern ones that are close to the $5K mark because of the build and glass etc. I have three ML's built by well known, good ,reputable builders, Brad Emig, C Edwards , Brumwell etc. I would not pay $5 grand for any of them. I see people on this site buying and selling ML's for $1500 to 2500 all the time. Did you ever think that is a sizable amount of money for many people in todays world? So, we sit here with all our toys, cars, boats, watches etc ML's , multiple firearms, yada yada yada, #A then wonder why the world is going down the toilet, when a good portion of the country is struggling to pay the utilities and eat? Yes, I think that the custom ML is gong the way of the Dodo....sooner than we think. When you can get a Kibler kit, that will build a rifle for $1500 bucks that any normal person would be proud of?, why would you want more? Just because you can? pls refer to #A.

 

[Jedidiah]

Exactly!

Hand it down to who? That's the real problem!

 

[Jedidiah]

I understand you point Hawk, but what I’m saying is they’re selling more guns now than 10 years ago..
It maybe the older population buying them, I’m not sure , but someone is.

I was only referring too the two builders mentioned, that was their backlog..

There are many more builders scattered across the Country, and if they can build a decent gun, they’re back logged too..

Manufacturers are selling more "firearms" than ever before, but they are not traditional ML's. Most firearm sales are going to people who already own a firearm, so the overall base, while it is increasing slowly, it is not increasing enough to make it sustainable over time IMHO

 

[smo]

The discussion was about custom builds , not gun manufacturers in general…

 

[Jedidiah]

The discussion was about custom builds , not gun manufacturers in general…

The facts are the same, people that already own a ML are doing most of the buying, Not new people coming into the sport.

 

[smo]

Most people didn’t buy a custom gun for their first muzzleloader, that’s a fact…

 

[SOLANCO]

I think the Kibler kits will hurt the high end gun builders. Why would anyone want to contract a builder to build you a custom gun for $1500 ( and up ) and wait a year or so to get it when you can order a Kibler kit for $1200. and build it yourself.

You have to wait 2-3 weeks to get your kit that can build in a weekend or two with minimal tools required. You'll have a rifle that is well build by yourself with top notch parts you can pass down to your children.

It doesn't get much better than that.

Jim likely has put a little dent in the high end builders. But the builder who made my rifle put more research, knowledge, experience, ability and patience into it than I could ever bring to bear on a Kibler kit. The builder, BTW, was Brad Emig.

I could likely build a presentable rifle from one of his kits. And I may yet. But it will never be mistaken for a high end custom gun.

 

[Jedidiah]

Jim likely has put a little dent in the high end builders. But the builder who made my rifle put more research, knowledge, experience, ability and patience into it than I could ever bring to bear on a Kibler kit. The builder, BTW, was Brad Emig.

I could likely build a presentable rifle from one of his kits. And I may yet. But it will never be mistaken for a high end custom gun.

I have a Smoothbore from Emig. He is one of a few who can build 100% from scratch, stock, parts, lock, including the barrel, if you are willing to pay for it.

 

[SOLANCO]

I have a Smoothbore from Emig. He is one of a few who can build 100% from scratch, stock, parts, lock, including the barrel, if you are willing to pay for it.

I was emailing with Mr. Emig about a matching pistol. Wife put the kibosh on that when she saw the price. The price was fair, but raised her hackles. Hmmm, maybe I should track her garden expenses this spring and summer.Maybe we have been eating $12 tomatoes in season!

 

[Hawk54]

I was emailing with Mr. Emig about a matching pistol. Wife put the kibosh on that when she saw the price. The price was fair, but raised her hackles. Hmmm, maybe I should track her garden expenses this spring and summer.Maybe we have been eating $12 tomatoes in season!

That is a road you really don't want to travel down. Ask me how I know.

 

[SOLANCO]

That is a road you really don't want to travel down. Ask me how I know.

 

[Patched]

I’m reading this whole thread with great interest…
Lots of “classic“ senior citizen behavior going on which includes tangential topics, anecdotal evidence, age related self righteousness and nostalgic lamentings…
”all this hard won experience and superior knowledge and no one to respect it “

And now for my sacred opinion:
I very recently bought a used excellent condition stainless steel barreled in-line from an auction site for $63 …shipping $40 and…
I recently bought a RE Davis “Goulcher” percussion lock for $130 plus $9 shipping…

The in-line is ready to shoot this very minute.
The Goulcher lock needs another $800 of companion parts and 100 hrs of skilled hand labor before it shoots.

This in-line is certain to hold its value.
At $5 per hour labor the Goulcher gun‘s $1440 value will fetch $600-$700 in the real marketplace…it’s interesting but not practical.

Probably 95% of 30 year olds interested in muzzleloaders would buy the in-line.