I have been thinking a lot about the original documentation that claims they could at least hit a man most of the time at 200 yards from the Offhand. As I already mentioned, I don’t see that as a major problem when the enemy was facing the Rifleman at 200, as far as elevation, because they most likely set their rifle sights a bit high at 100 or 110 yards and could have aimed at the top of his hat and the ball would then drop into the enemy’s torso.
I also assume they moved the rear sight so the ball would hit center side to side at 100 or 110 yards. It is far from usual that a rifle will send a ball downrange that is perfectly aligned side to side with the sights. So beyond that range, the rifle would have sent the ball more and more to the right or left of center as the distance increased. So at 200 yards the ball would naturally hit a little further right or left of center than it did at 100 yards, even with no wind blowing across between the rifle and the target. Again, assuming the rifleman actually did at least some practice at 200 yards, he would know how far to the left or right from center that his rifle naturally sent the ball at that distance, so he could "hold off" to hit center.
Hopefully that practice at 200 yards also included some days there was a cross wind blowing from the left or right, so he could also estimate how much he had to hold off left or right for a cross wind.
So with the information from the above paragraphs, a good rifle would have been capable of hitting a man size target at least in the torso, at 200 yards.
OK, so what about that kind of accuracy from the Offhand? The average person today probably has little or no experience shooting Offhand at 200 yards, unless they did it in the military. Also, unless they did a career in the military or shot in National Match Competition, they would not have shot a whole lot from the Offhand at 200. So allow me to add a little information from shooting Offhand at that distance.
The Black Bullseye on the 200 yard target that the Army and Navy used to shoot at and Marines still shoot at from the Offhand, is a 12 inch circle to get the full value 5 points out of 5. When the service members shot at that distance, they practiced shooting across the whole course for at least 3 days before they “shot for record” on the 4th or 5th day. That means they had a chance to set their sights for elevation and windage, for that distance, so the bullet would hit center. That takes the mechanical accuracy out of the equation and leaves it up to the shooter to be able to hit center from the Offhand at 200 yards, as long as he/she can read the amount of cross wind blowing ”“ just as Riflemen would have done with a little practice at that distance over 200 years earlier. So the question arises for shooters who are at least modern day Expert Class Shooters, can they usually hit that 12 inch bullseye from the Offhand at 200 yards on a target range? The answer is YES, they can. Now really good shooters can almost guarantee they will hit that bullseye all five times from the Offhand at 200 yards almost every time, if not every time. So the Riflemen who were very good shooters and had good rifles and loads, would have been able to do it 200 years ago as well.
Now, the average width of a man today at the shoulders is 18.4 inches and that would leave at least 3 inches on either side of that 12 inch bullseye to hit an enemy’s torso at 200. Though British Soldiers were on average not usually quite that size in the 18th century, outside the Grenadiers, that still gives us a good enough measurement to go from and maybe 2-3 inches on each side of the modern day bullseye. So IF an enemy soldier was facing the Rifleman and standing still or walking/marching towards the Rifleman, there was a very good chance they would have hit the enemy in the torso at 200 yards, even from the Offhand and as long as the wind was not too strong from the side.
If the Enemy was turned right or left, there is not as much of a target to shoot at, though I have not been able to find the back to front measurement on the average man. It seems it would be half of the distance of the width of the shoulders, more or less, so that would have been a more difficult shot, but still possible for the better/best Riflemen and when they had time to take a good aim.
If the Enemy Soldier faced sideways to the Rifleman and if a strong cross wind was blowing or the Enemy Soldier was walking/marching, that would have made it even more difficult to hit him in the torso. It is still possible that the better/best Riflemen could have hit the Enemy Soldier from the Offhand, but not every time. Perhaps as much as half the time or less, but not all the time.
Of course the odds of hitting an Enemy Soldier when the Rifleman used some kind of rest at 200 yards would have gone up, as long as he had done at least some practice at that distance.
Now of course the odds of hitting an Enemy Soldier in a full Battle line from the Offhand at 200 yards went up quite a bit. Didn't matter if you aimed at one soldier and hit the soldier to his right or left.
Considering all these things, it would not have been and was not “safe” for an Enemy Soldier to be within 200 yards of an American Rifleman during the AWI. Without even considering shooting at longer distances, that was extremely good accuracy in the 18th century and still very good accuracy today. For British Soldiers who were not used to taking those kinds of casualties until they got MUCH closer to an Enemy, that would have been extremely disconcerting, indeed.
Gus