I expect these folks can switch to substitutes...
They sure can, but muzzleloading shooters can switch to substitutes, too. Substitutes work in percussion guns, and can be made to work in flintlocks with duplex loads. It's just that real black powder works better all around, whether loading from the muzzle or loading cartridges. I know cowboy action shooters who are just as adamant about using real black powder as we are, and they use a lot more of it than most of us. For me, a trip to the range by myself with a muzzleloader might involve as few as ten or a dozen shots, and the local matches usually call for five relays of five rounds each, or 25 shots. Cowboy action shooters routinely go through that many shots in a single stage. They burn a lot of powder, and all of the "blackpowder cowboys" whom I know prefer the real thing.
This is good, in a way. During a shortage, the demand makes it harder for individuals to maintain their stock of powder, but that same demand is what fuels the production and keeps it profitable for the manufacturers. Who knows why Hodgdon felt it would not be profitable to continue with Goex? Wano, the principal European manufacturer, is evidently ramping up production to compensate because they sense an opportunity for profit. It may be a management issue. I don't know.
As I have said before, my only concern with buying powder made overseas is that it would only take the stroke of a pen by the President to ban the importation of black powder on the grounds it can be used by terrorist to make bombs. I hope the rumors that Dupont wants to buy the Goex facility and start up production of Back Powder again is true.
That is a concern, and I also hope Dupont takes over the Goex plant and resumes production. Maybe they'll even change the name back to Dupont! I do and will continue to buy American when I have a viable choice. Meanwhile, powder still
can be imported, and if the domestic manufacturers won't support us, I will support the people who do, even if they are overseas.
Best regards,
Notchy Bob