Coyote Joe, this 10-15% rule of thumb that one hears nowadays has become a burr under my saddle, too. I've never seen any citation of it that includes data or primary references.
When I got started 35 years ago (with sources dating back a decade or three before that), the common wisdom was to increase the charge by "up to 1/3" when going from 3F to 2F to get the same velocity (equivalent to decreasing the charge by up to 1/4 going from 2F to 3F). It was generally accepted that the 3F charge would likely have higher pressure. Getting the same point of impact is a separate matter - muzzle whip and barrel rise have more involved than just muzzle velocity.
When I looked again at the Lyman and Gun Digest loading manuals (and some other sources), where they compare loads with different granulations of powder by the same manufacturer and vintage, fired in the same gun, I found the charge increase required to get the same velocity (usually had to interpolate a bit, given 10 grain increments often listed) when going from 3F to 2F varied from 15% to 55%. Caliber, projectile, barrel length, etc. certainly cause differences, and the charge increases varied somewhat by the pressure/velocity involved in a given barrel, but by far the majority of the charge increases ranged from 1/4-1/3 (25%-33%). This is equivalent to reducing the charge by 1/5-1/4 (20%-25%) when going from 2F to 3F. When pressures were given, they were always higher with the 3F, and often significantly so, but none that I noticed were excessive with reasonable loads.
I'd dearly love for someone to cite some more systematic comparisons.
Joel