Col. Batguano said:
It would be interesting to know just how much pressure wood that wants to expand (but is restricted) can exert. And, the reverse. How much movement restriction will cause wood to split to relieve the stress.
It can be calculated, but suffice to say it is tremendous. One of the first things I learned about the design of materials is that the natural forces of thermal expansion, shrinkage, etc. are too much to be resisted by any means and must be accommodated.
A colleague of mine, who is actually a structural engineer specializing in timber construction, recently told a story of a coffee table that he had built several years ago. Being new to furniture making, he had glued the top piece on all four sides and did not allow for expansion/contraction. A couple months later, he was sitting at his kitchen table and heard a series of loud bangs, which he thought was gunfire outside his house. He then discovered splits all throughout the top of his coffee table. The point of his story was actually to illustrate that the glue was so strong that the wood broke instead of the glued joints. But the fact that the splitting wood was so loud that he thought it was gunfire demonstrates the amount of stress that had built up in the wood. I have also seen 2x4 truss chords broken completely through their section as the result of being restrained at both ends. Imagine the tension force it takes to do that!
But again, this was because the wood was restrained against shrinkage as it dried, and is a much different scenario than what we have with a stock that is essentially free to shrink in all directions.
Agreed, the risk we have with our stocks would be any areas where the wood is trying to shrink around metal, such as inlays, the breech and tang, and barrel pins. But I am with you that in the OP's case, by the time he gets that far the wood will have reached ambient, and even if he didn't, I don't believe that starting 12% would be exceptionally problematic.
Lastly, in regards to the amount of movement it takes to relieve and accommodate the shrinking stress, it's actually very minimal. Wood is much more dimensionally stable in the direction of the grain than it is perpendicular to the grain. To use a 2x4 for example, it will expand and contract more in its width than it will in its length. In general, green wood shrinks only about 0.01% in the direction of grain. So for an 8' 2x4, that's only about 0.01". But, the shrinkage that is radial and tangential to the grain is many times more between 4-8% and this is where we have to be careful with the wood shrinking around imbedded metal.
Here is a website that provides some good basic discussion.
http://workshopcompanion.com/KnowHow/Design/Nature_of_Wood/2_Wood_Movement/2_Wood_Movement.htm