Without being there and seeing which guns were being sold and seeing what they sold for, it’s kind of hard to make an overall judgment.
Generally when the supply of something is large and demand is low, prices become depressed. When demand is high and supply is low, prices increase. I am not convinced that the demand is high due to an increase in the popularity of muzzle loading. I think the price increases are more a function of a scarcity of the products, with a limited demand and one remaining factor or so.
If you are looking at custom made guns, I would anticipate that the prices are increasing substantially as the number of good builders decline, costs increase and increasing wages due to the economy. One builder whom I talked with said he was going to have to raise his prices, as he was not going to make less than some one at McDonalds makes after the minimum wage is increased.
I was in a pawn shop recently looking for muzzle loaders. The owner said if it was not an in-line, he would not take it in on pawn. He said there was no market for traditional muzzle loaders. He is in the business of making money and has a feel on what his customers want.
If you consider how many companies have quit manufacturing traditional muzzle loaders, this is a very good indicator of the market conditions. Companies do not drop products that are making them money, unfortunately the demand is dwindling.
The NMLRA is struggling to maintain membership. It has around 18,000 members, that is only about 360 in each state. Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania have 6100 of those members. This then leaves 253 members on the average in the remaining states. I know that not all who shoot muzzle loaders belong to the NMLRA, but this is an indicator of muzzle loading declining in popularity.
I believe that places such as e-bay are affecting the number of guns that are available as they part the guns out trying to get every penny that they can for a gun.
fred brings up a very viable point, look at the age shooters today, most are over 50. I was at a shoot yesterday; all were over 50 and most over 60. How many clubs are seeing an increase in membership and how many clubs have folded in the last 10 tears?
All in all, my feeling is that those who are buying, are those whose disposable income has increased, they are at the “empty nest” stage of life (kids are gone) and can afford what they want and what is available for sale has been reduced. The overall market is declining while disposable income has increased, thus prices increase.
My thoughts,
RDE