That's where I'm not sure I agree with out about success rates. It's really hard to find an apples to apples comparison. Minnesota is about as lenient on muzzleloaders as you can get. Inlines, scopes, smokeless powder, even breech loading powder (firesticks) is all allowed. Looking at past regular firearms seasons, success is always fairly consistent around 31%-32%. Also consider 1/3rd of the states area, and the vast majority of the population is inside of the "shotgun zone", which is better said as the no rifle zone. Pistols in any caliber are allowed, shotguns with slugs only, muzzleloaders, crossbows, and bows. Also consider that I'm sure plenty of people buy these tags and never even hunt. Now looking at the muzzleloader season, where just about anything muzzleloading goes, success is way down, around 15%. You do have to also consider this is late season, right after the firearms season kills about 150,000 deer, deer are skittish, weather is harsh, and patterns are changing to post-rut. It's a tough season. Still, muzzleloaders right off the bat clearly have a lower success than a shotgun with slugs. Why, I have no idea. Some people hunt the firearms season with a muzzleloader because they can be more accurate than a slug gun.
The best comparison I can think of would be Pennsylvania. They have a flintlock only season, no scopes, nothing. It is also late season, right after their firearms. This is as close to 1-1 as you can get. Unfortunately I cant find a report on their deer seasons. If you can find that report, I'd really like to see it.