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The eight shot group.

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Grandpa Ron

45 Cal.
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Just got back from the range and as usual the results are confusing.

Sure I can fire a nice 3 or 4 inch group at fifty yards from the bench for the first three of four shots but try holding that group for 10 shots.

When I started out I was told 3 shots make a group, 5 shots make a better group and eight shots tells you what your gun is doing.

I shoot a 28 ga. trade gun with 70 grains of 2F and so far a ½” cushion wad under a PRB had proved most accurate. But, my group for 8 to 10 shots will open up to 8 inches.

I usually swab the bore after 5 shots. I am practicing for the offhand match at the National which is 13 shots in 30 minutes and you count your best ten. I learned a long time ago it is rarely the gun.

So the question is, has anyone posted an 8 to 10 shot, 50 yard group from the bench, with all the shots inside 6 inches. If so please provide the details.
 
I've looked into this problem a lot and here's what I found. The natural variability of shots cluster about a central point, but with decreasing probability spread out from that point. The shape of this scatter is known as a "bell curve" meaning the most likely shots are right in the middle, but there is a natural chance for shots to be in the "tails". Statisticians describe the variation as the width of this peak at "half height" but we shooters describe the variation as the distance from the furthest points (which are the extreme spread in the tails". Now if we on,y shoot 2 or 3 shots these are most likely in the center of this bell curve and the extreme spread is small, but keep shooting and now more of that curve is filling in and the extreme spread widens. If you shot 100 times the scatter could bed perfectly "normal" but the distance from the furthest points would be huge! So shooters harmonize on a set number of shots and do all their comparisons there, because comparing spread from one shot count to another naturally increases with shot count.

But...the problem is, even though spread of furthest points goes up with shot count due to pure math ("probability and statisticas") it can also go up due to dirty barrel, wind, human reflexes, etc. Testing if the scatter is "normal" or being influenced by a real effect is not trivial and takes more explanation than I can give here. for example, pure random scatter gives the bell curve I mentioned. A barrel getting dirty would show more of a skewed bell curve. But we need statistical tools to assess and not just a single measurement.

If you wanted to post some pics of your targets I will take a look to see if the statistics shows anything.
Regards,
Dave
 
:thumbsup:

"even though spread of furthest points goes up with shot count due to pure math ("probability and statisticas")"

I suspect we have more control over whether or not we are struck by lightning than we do this.

"it can also go up due to dirty barrel, wind, human reflexes, etc."

This is the area where we can exert some control and concentrating on these things can tuck in the "tails" (reduce the variation).

Grandpa Ron have you given any thought to lubing the wad to help control or reduce the effects of fouling? There has been considerable discussion of this on the forum specially among those shooting shot in their smoothbores.
 
yes, the increase of Center-to-center distance with increasing shot sizes we can't control at all. But all is not lost! If we can control other things about technique or equipment, we can get still get to "tack drivers".

My main point is comparing a 5 shot spread to a 10 shot spread will always show an increase in spread between the two. So we ought to stick with one (lets say 10 shots) and do what we can to reduce the spread for that shot count through some experimentation with things like swabbing the barrel between shots, and compare the 10 shot spread with a 10 shot spread where the barrel wasn't swabbed.
 
Grandpa Ron,

I made a career building rifles that had to shoot very small 10 shot groups at 300 yards and some that had to shoot very small groups at 1,000 yards. The testing for those guns was with a VERY expensive test rack machine that took virtually all human error out of the equation. We sometimes had people record every shot in a group and numbered them by the number it was fired in a group. We especially wanted to know how far the FIRST shot was out of the group and then how the shots opened the group as the number of rounds increased. We were also looking for anomalies in the string of shots and other things. With this in my background, I formed the following opinions of shooting groups from benches.

I believe that three round groups can be and often are the best judge of accuracy for many, if not most people, as they lose concentration and make more mistakes as the number of rounds increase. The human error factor creeps in more in 5 shot groups for many people than 3 shot groups and even more error creeps in on 8 shot groups. Now, IF the person is really good at calling a shot and ignores a shot they know they made a mistake on and fire another shot to replace the shot on which they made a mistake, then longer groups do tell a little more for accuracy.

I ALSO agree with Hisownself that as number of shots in a group increase, there will a wider variation of shots from both purely statistical reasons, but also mechanical reasons that are outside the shooter's control. These are not as much as the human error increase, but they are still there.

I believe it is VERY important to know where the FIRST shot out of your rifle will land in different temperatures, humidity, wind conditions and other environmental conditions. A Rifle can shoot to a very different point of impact for the first shot, depending on these things. You get that knowledge from shooting at different times of the year and in different conditions PLUS recording the groups.

Of course, I am a strong believer in having a Log Book so you can go back and check these things.

Gus
 
Artificer said:
We especially wanted to know how far the FIRST shot was out of the group and then how the shots opened the group as the number of rounds increased.
But Gus, for that arm, wasn't it (1st round placement) more due so as the M1A being mag fed, yet the 1st round was stripped from the mag from the being bolt locked back vs by gas operation with spring return as on subsequent shots?

I do agree that for ANY shooter, if you really want to know the capability of you and the load, 10-shot groups should be the norm.
 
Just my two cents, but have you ever noticed that it seems to be the first shot that goes somewhere outside the rest of the group? Snipers call that first shot a "cold zero". Clean bore and cool barrel. Replicate those "cold zero" conditions and the next shot will hit with the first, as will the third, fourth, and so on as long as you can maintain your concentration. When I was competing in .22 cal Schuetzen matches we had a pile of dirt that everyone fired a "fouling shot" into. The barrel was then allowed to cool before the first shot for score was fired. Our sights were regulated for that first shot. Following shots were spaced so as to allow the barrel to cool. That spacing also helped us to maintain our concentration and avoid fatigue. My muzzleloading shooting pre-dates my Schuetzen by quite a few years but the technique is the same. Establish a consistent bore condition and do my best to replicate it. I fire a blank fouling shot, wipe the bore with one pass of a patch wet with a 6:1 mixture of water and Ballistol, allow to dry, and load. Each shot is done the same way. Consistency = Accuracy.

John
 
Clean bore and cool barrel. Replicate those "cold zero" conditions and the next shot will hit with the first, as will the third, fourth, and so on as long as you can maintain your concentration

THERE IT IS

Everybody else made some good points, but finally somebody mentioned the temperature of the barrel...plus we haven't mentioned the shape of the pattern of the group, either.

Depending on how fast you shoot...the heating of the metal in the barrel will cause that barrel to flex, and the longer the barrel, coupled with the thinner the barrel, the more it does this.

So yes a ten shot group might be an excellent indication of what your load and barrel are doing...if it was one shot per hour for ten hours, or better yet, 10 shots over ten days at the same time every day. :shocked2:

Plus, we are talking a smooth bore trade gun...thinner barrel than a swamped .54 smooth rifle, which is thinner than a straight barrel in the same gauge, and that's thinner than say a typical "chunk gun" barrel. So it's gonna flex as it heats. PLUS if it's pinned and the stress of those pins aren't properly relieved where they pass through the barrel tennons...that may be having an impact too.

(I once owned a Remington M7 in .308...pencil thin barrel...first two shots, dead on...after that...craptastic, until it cooled.)

In addition to temp, it has been mentioned that shooter fatigue might be an important factor, but we haven't looked at the shape of that ten-shot group either. Is it a shotgun effect, OR do those additional shots "move" in a specific direction? That modern rifle that I mentioned above...would start throwing the rounds high and right as the barrel heated, and the warmer it got...the farther away from the bull they went. :wink: So heat, plus one or more other variables...OOOPS

So....I'd worry more about your first two or three shots...especially with that "shotgun" thickness barrel. You might find that it's not a good choice for a rapid woods walk when you're shooting single ball...but for me if it went where I aimed at the first shot of the day at a deer, what's not to like?

LD
 
Short answer, any gun can or will shoot off the group on the first round fired - no matter what kind of modern gun or muzzle loader.

Gus
 
I mentioned the statistics of maximum spread increasing with shot count from a purely mathematical perspective. Here's an interesting article on that exact subject I recently found!
http://www.the-long-family.com/Group size statistical analysis.pdf

I'm not saying real things don't affect shot spread increasing. What I'm saying is that since shot spread increases naturally with increasing shot count, we have to take this into account if we want a full critical appraisal of shooting performance when using maximum spread as our metric.
 
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Hisownself said:
I mentioned the statistics of maximum spread increasing with shot count from a purely mathematical perspective.

Please understand I am agreeing with you that the shots will spread both from a mathematical perspective as well as other factors. Sorry if I did not make that clear.


Gus
 
No offense! I thought the article was interesting and wanted to post the link. It seems to have appeared as a response to you though. Meant as a general reply to the whole thread.
 
Grumpa,

I hope we have not confused the heck out of you. To get the smallest groups possible when firing long strings of shots, there has to be a combination of having the most accurate load for your gun AND knowing how to get the most accuracy out of your gun when doing so. So in this post, I will attempt to explain how to do the latter.

As a young Sergeant and before I knew who he actually was, Carlos Hathcock taught me to sight in a bolt action hunting rifle. He told me to make sure the bore was clean and have the ammo I would use for hunting and meet him on the range. He made me lay down and take up a good prone position. He told me to take my time and concentrate on firing ONE good shot AND make sure I knew where it hit. After I fired it, he scoped the shot and asked how the shot looked when the rifle went off. I told him it went a little high and left, as I remember. He grinned and said, "Good Call." He adjusted my scope and bit and then said, "Now clean and dry that barrel thoroughly and meet me back out here tomorrow." The next day we repeated the above and after the shot was fired, he adjusted the scope a bit more and once again told me to clean the barrel and meet him the next day. After some time of doing this, my Gunnery Sergeant (who had set it up for Carlos to teach me) asked how it was going. I told him it was going well, but we were only firing one round a day. My Gunny then said, "How many rounds do you think you will get when hunting?"

To make a LONG story short, Carlos had me shoot ONE shot from a clean barrel many times over different distances and weather conditions. He had me record everything possible about time, temperature, wind, humidity, light conditions, scope settings, how I felt that day, etc., etc., etc. He even called me up after we had finished most of the shooting on a COLD December day when there was 4 inches of snow on the ground and it was raining freezing rain. When I was somewhat hesitant, he asked "What happens when you have to hunt in this weather?" OK, so out we went. The Log Book I had for that rifle was so complete I could set the scope for any range I was going to shoot, in almost any weather condition and was SURE the first round out of the rifle would hit exactly on target. This is often referred today as shooting with a "cold zero" as someone else mentioned. Even before that I had read where the FIRST shot out of a cold barrel would often or usually go outside the group with other guns. That is fact.

OK, I hope I will be forgiven mentioning shooting a modern rifle, BUT there is much to learn from this for muzzle loading.

John mentioned how they took a "fouling shot" when shooting .22 rifles and SOMETIMES at some events, you can take a "fouling shot" with a muzzle loader. Unfortunately you can't do that at every event. Someone else mentioned cleaning and cooling the barrel between shots, BUT in some or many events, you don't have time to do that. So you have to tailor this knowledge to how you are going to shoot the gun, to make it useful.

If you are only going to fire one shot, as in hunting, then the cold zero method is the best way to sight in your gun. But what happens when one has to fire five, ten or 13 shots in some matches? Then it is best to PRACTICE with your gun the way it will be shot in the match and record where you thought the shots should have went and where they actually went. Also, note when you made mistakes on a shot. As others have mentioned, perhaps the biggest thing to get the most accuracy out of a gun is uniformity or doing everything as close to exactly the same way both when you load and when you shoot.

I suggest beginning practice from a clean/cold barrel since many matches don't allow us to fire a fouling shot. It is a good idea to run a clean dry patch or patches down the bore to remove excess oil first, before loading your gun. (This can be done before starting a “Woods Walk” or any other match.) Carefully load your gun and take up a good, uniform shooting position and fire the best aimed shot you can. Before you look at where the bullet hit the target, write down where you think the bullet should have hit. If you believe it was a good shot, then scope or check the target and record the shot and how far away it is from your normal group. If it was not a good shot, then clean the barrel and allow it to cool and start all over. What you need to know is how far off the first shot will be from a clean cold barrel compared to other shots you will fire in your group, SO you can aim differently for the first shot so it will go inside the group of the later shots. If for example you learn the first round hits a bit high and to the left from the clean barrel, then you aim a little low and right to compensate on the first round. I would call it a VERY successful practice session if all you learn was how far off the first round hits the target and you learn how to “hold off” or adjust your aiming point for that first round so it will strike inside your group.

Once you learn how far to hold off for your first round, then practice should be done the way you will shoot the match. IF you have time to clean or wipe between shots in a match, then make sure you do that as well when practicing. If you don’t have time to clean or at least wipe down the bore with one dry patch between shots in the match, then that is the way you should practice shooting for that match. After taking the best aimed shot each time, record where you think it went before you scope or find out where it went. Then also write down where it actually went and anything like an error or change in conditions that may have caused the shot to go out of the group. Once you have recorded the information from a few practice sessions and you note trends in how the groups open up as you shoot, you can also adjust your aiming point for the later shots in a string, to shoot a smaller group.

To record this information, you will need some kind of shooter’s log book. In my experience, it is best if you have a drawing of the kind of target you shoot and have two of these targets on each page. One is for plotting the shots after you shoot and the second one is to plot where the shot actually went. You write the number of the shot on the first target where you thought it went and then that same number on the second target where the shot actually went, after you scope where it hit. You don’t have to buy a shooter’s log book as you can make your own pages for the target, range and gun you will be shooting. Then copy the blank pages down and put them in a 3 ring binder. Here is a link to the sort of page I am referring to for an idea on how to make up your own pages. http://downloads.bisonballistics.com/NRA-Highpower-Data-Log-Book-Prone-600-Zoom.pdf

Gus
 
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No offense taken.

This forum is a little different than some other forums in that when you hit the reply button, it will show up as a reply to the post from which you hit the button. So if you wish to reply to a certain person or post, you hit the reply from that post. If you wish to make a general reply, it is often best to hit the reply in the last post AND type a short note that your reply is a general one. Hope this helps.

Gus
 
Having taken many shots w/ a 19 lb benchrest rifle in .22/250 w/ an 18X Unertl "scope" and w/ precisely hand loaded cartridges, going from a 5 shot group to a ten is mainly controlled by "human factors".

The human factors of anxiety, fatigue, expectations and depression all contribute to whether a ten shot group will be as small as a 5 shot group. In many instances it won't be...when I went past 5 shots which were in a tight group and we're talking 5 shots at 100 yds that a dime could cover , the self induced "pressure" to maintain the tight grouping" was overwhelming at times. I started sweating and the nerves became frayed w/ the resultant "flyers" and lousy groups. As time progressed and the "personal" problems lessened, the ten shot groups were nearly as small as the 5 shot.

If the mechanics of bore prep, components and loading are consistent, then it's the human factor. I experienced human factors as stated in the above paragraphs and when one is so consumed w/ small groups, as I was, the human factors have to be realized, contended w/ and overcome. ....Fred
 
Agree with Loyalist Dave.
Thin barrels heat up and expand faster than thicker ones. Check to see if your barrel tennons are slotted/relieved longitudinally, and that the pin rides somewhere close to the middle of the slot. You need to check this to eliminate it as a possible problem.

As much as I like smoothbores, I have to admit getting and maintaining good, consistent ball accuracy is maddening at times. The knowledge that even a carelessly loaded rifle will usually outshoot a carefully tuned smoothbore makes me wonder if that was one reason many of our ancestors bought a rifle when the opportunity arose.
 
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