I don't doubt for a second that Kibler won't grow and do better. That would be fantastic for everyone. But keep in mind, in a niche market in the first place, "kits" are an even smaller part of that. A lot of people want an off-the-shelf solution and they want it 'now'. They 'need' it 'now' and want a complete gun. A kit to them is sealed in a plastic shell and come all but idiot proof with all the gadgets they need to get started. There's nothing wrong with that.
If TC were only coming at this to offer traditional kits and not finished products, I would guess they have a decent year or three based on nostalgia but in the end, they'd be forced out of the 'kit' game. TC needs to focus on finished product direct to consumer or dealer shelves. Kit's could be a nice revenue stream but it would be a fraction of their "traditional" sales. You could take the in-line user base vs the traditional as one example of how the ML community split over the last few decades. Honestly, ML sale volumes are driven predominantly by hunting regulations. If you want to see tradtional gun popularity return, you have cut off the inline hunting seasons/regs at the knees. TC leveraged this in their favor in the 70s and 80s. Once inlines are approved for hunting, it's going to be hard to get a lot of people to go backwards to sidelocks. Why reduce "my" odds, right? Objective perspective here, not personal bias, is how this has to be viewed.
Economics are going to be a thing too. I would expect TC to come in at about half the price of a Kibler kit. I would look for $700-800 finished and maybe $500-600 kit. Once you weed out the buyers with cash in hand for the Kibler or the patience to save, you are left again, with the 'now' or 'the best I can do' crowd. TC's primary competition is the Italian or European made guns, kit or otherwise. If TC can produce quality products, they are going to do fine. Kibler is always going to be a high-end specialty shop and that's a fantastic place to be, they just are not for everyone. I hope they continue to do well and can't wait to get my first kit from them.
There are far less potential buyers in the ML middle ground to fight over. Most people are going to fall on the ends of 'need it now and cheap' or 'money and skills'. If I wanted to buy two new guns, one for myself and one for my son/daugther to start ML hunting, I potentially could get two TCs or one Kibler... What that middle crowd can be convinced to do is where TC will either feast or famine. TC is not going to cut deeply into Kibler's niche, how could they, they're not the same product. What Kibler is able to do long-term to other gun makers in the custom niche may be more interesting to watch.
In the end, TC could potentially be a high volume producer.... OR.... they could be blowing smoke up all our @$$*s. We might find all of this wishful thinking to have been a waste of time
