Many years ago I worked as a mechanic, before that I cleaned cars for the dealership. Most of us cleaned cars before moving on the various stages of mechanic work. A new kid came to work detailing cars, he told me he bought horses so if times turned hard he would have transportation. I informed him I bought guns and ammo, if times got that hard I would shoot and eat his horse, there wouldn't be much he could do about it if he didn't have a gun or ammo.
There is a clear and easy pattern to short supply, fear is the biggest factor. Ever time a Democrat is elected there is fear among the folks who do what we do, so everyone panic buys and the supply dries up. It happened with Clinton, Obama and now Biden. Once things settle down or a Republican gets in office the supply comes back. I don't feel sorry for folks who don't have enough sense to buy while there is a supply yet whine when they run out. Muzzleloaders especially have time to buy as the smokeless powder supply dries up, black powder typically follows a week or two behind. Seen this at both Grafs and Powder Valley. Now is the time to buy. Next year is the election and if it looks like a Democrat is going to win, no matter if it's Biden, camel toe or Newsome we may not see supplies again for another 3 to 4 years. Buy now and buy what your going to need for the next 4 to 5 years. Guns are only clubs without a good supply of ammo.