Below is my synopsis of what you have described just to make sure I am interpreting everything the same way you are.
Basically, as the ball enters the barrel and transfers force forward, the barrel begins to pull forward on the arbor by way of the wedge. When that happens, the wedge pushes the forward end of the arbor, which creates the force which could break the arbor as shown in your pictures.
The question as to whether an arbor being seated against the base of the arbor hole can keep it from breaking will hinge on the relative properties of the materials involved.
If the material in the arbor achieves a breaking point after being stretched a certain amount over a certain number of rounds fired, then having the arbor seated against the base of the arbor hole could keep that arbor from breaking if the material the barrel lug is made of keeps the arbor from stretching to that point at which microscopic fissures begin to form. Under those circumstances, the arbor will be unable to stretch enough for those fissures to occur.
If, however, the barrel lug flexes enough to allow the arbor to stretch to that breaking point, then having the arbor seated against the base of the arbor hole may not help prolong the life of the arbor because the lug will move forward far enough that it won't support the end of the arbor when the weapon is fired.
Ultimately, a strong arbor is the most important requirement if the strength of the barrel lug varies significantly from one weapon to another, moreso than having the arbor seat against the base of the arbor hole.
I will, however, stand by the idea that having the arbor seat against the base of the arbor hole keeps the barrel from snapping back against the wedge excessively after the bullet exits the muzzle. This is where the benefit of a fully seated arbor seems to best come about.
Only a metallurgical analysis can answer the aforementioned question, and that analysis would only apply to a given revolver or specific run of revolvers where manufacturing standards are very specific.