why not conduct a simple test, take some scrap wood 2x4 or bigger , stack 2 together and shoot at, see what the penetration is at different ranges, If the ball punches through and depth there is your answer.
Lots of great info but I go back to the one where it was suggested to find some guys who are shooting BP !
Observe, ask questions and odds are you will get to shoot someone's flinter ! then you will be better informed on your direction.