Will the bottom fall out of the custom build business?

[NorthFork]

The main thing keeping American Muzzleloading afloat is the ability to freely buy and sell them without the FFL hassle, and even then there aren't many people in the 18-40 Demographic looking to buy custom Hawkens, rifled-muskets from places like Romano who doesn't even have a website anymore or other high-end front stuffers. The majority of hunters buy cheap mass produced rifles to extend their season. Fewer hunters are buying a custom flintlock to take in the field.

How many rifles are these custom builders actually making and selling though? 50 per year? 100? That's still probably $200,000 in profit per year. And some of these "customs" probably go to repeat buyers who collect them. As these buyers age and go on to the Great Reward, demand will wane for high-end custom muzzleloading rifles.

When I go to one of my gun clubs to shoot, which is a lot, I RARELY see anyone else shooting any kind of muzzleloader except for the week or so leading up to Primitive or Inline Season, when guys bring their CVA's or T/C's, or whatever inlines out to pop 3 rounds off to confirm zero. I am the "oddball" on the firing line with stocked percussion revolvers, Enfield rifle-muskets, etc among all the dudes with bolt action target rifles, ARs, or whatever else. Maybe, 2 years ago I saw a guy with a cap and ball revolver in the pistol pits but I never saw that guy again.

Muzzleloaders are "toys" to most people involved in the shooting game, or they see them as a novelty.

Taking people shooting or letting people shoot muzzleloaders? I do it all the time. They are all super interested, think they are "cool", all like "what is that thing??" and I let them shoot muzzleloaders or cap and ballers. I've seen those same people dozens of times again, still shooting AK clones or 9mm pistols. Not a ONE of them is like "I bought an 1858 Remington". People think they are cool but not cool enough to buy, they'll keep playing with their usual guns.

Cap and Ball revolvers are doing well, compared to muzzleloading rifles, because they are paperwork free handguns and most younger people are more likely to play with "cowboy guns" or Civil War pistols than a custom Kentucky Rifle.

I'm going out on a limb here but I feel the majority of customers for custom, high end muzzleloaders are men in the 45+ Demographic who have the $$ and time to purchase and enjoy them......kids are out of the house, they are higher up on their careers, etc

It's like when the Classic Muscle Car market exploded a while back....who was buying them? Men in their 40's+.

So much truth it hurts.

 

[TDM]

So much truth it hurts.

Yep, it’s the way things are for the most part.

 

[stephenprops1]

I’m reading this whole thread with great interest…
Lots of “classic“ senior citizen behavior going on which includes tangential topics, anecdotal evidence, age related self righteousness and nostalgic lamentings…
”all this hard won experience and superior knowledge and no one to respect it “

And now for my sacred opinion:
I very recently bought a used excellent condition stainless steel barreled in-line from an auction site for $63 …shipping $40 and…
I recently bought a RE Davis “Goulcher” percussion lock for $130 plus $9 shipping…

The in-line is ready to shoot this very minute.
The Goulcher lock needs another $800 of companion parts and 100 hrs of skilled hand labor before it shoots.

This in-line is certain to hold its value.
At $5 per hour labor the Goulcher gun‘s $1440 value will fetch $600-$700 in the real marketplace…it’s interesting but not practical.

Probably 95% of 30 year olds interested in muzzleloaders would buy the in-line.

A small percentage of inline muzzleloaders will become interested in the "old school" muzzleloaders and buy at least one. I started out with a T/C White Mountain Carbine. After a while I sld it and got an inline. I did like the inline. However, I discovered I preferred the old stuff so I sold the inline and went back to percussion rifles. I now also have a couple of flintlocks.

 

[NorthFork]

A small percentage of inline muzzleloaders will become interested in the "old school" muzzleloaders and buy at least one. I started out with a T/C White Mountain Carbine. After a while I sld it and got an inline. I did like the inline. However, I discovered I preferred the old stuff so I sold the inline and went back to percussion rifles. I now also have a couple of flintlocks.

You Sir are the rare exception.

 

[wganz]

Going to take a contrarian stance here. The unmentionable black items that are the bane of every Liberal are selling. There are a lot of younger shooters in IDPA & USPSA. I could go to such a match every weekend and a couple on weekdays should I so choose in the Dallas area. However, there isn’t an N-SSA team in either Texas, Oklahoma, or Louisiana. My team is the 14th Mississippi. And I found out about the N-SSA by accident.
The problem is now a recruiting/marketing/information thing. Another big hurdle is the cost of getting into M/L. The embarrassing cost of me getting just a smoothbore musket is a prime example. That one musket is more than a race gun in tactical pistol matches.

A new ArmiSport 1842 is $1.7k. Get on-line & see what that type of coin gets you. You get a high speed/low drag pistol, belt, holster, and mag pouches were you fully match ready. But you’re only good for one N-SSA stage.

N-SSA had 3 state teams not even have a single member show up a fall nationals. Something has to give or go.

 

[Dartwick]

Respectfully, muzzleloading season wasn't created for "Primitive" firearms.

Muzzleloading season, when introduced, was for the most common percussion and flintlock muzzleloaders already in production. In-line muzzleloaders were still decades away from being invented and mass produced in great numbers. Had they been around, no one would have gotten a burr up their butt about their usage. Because they would have been in wide use and fully accepted as a hunting tool.

States would go bonkers trying to please everyone. Long rifle flintlock season. Long rifle percussion season. Hawken rifle season. Mountain rifle season. Crockett rifle season. Smooth bore only season. And there'd have to be Traditions Kentuckyish and Hawkenish seasons because everyone knows they're not "Real" muzzleloaders and shouldn't be allowed during "Real" muzzleloader season. Then there's bare ball. Patched ball. Minnie ball. Maxi ball. Are we to regulate the snot out of projectiles too? People use Delrin and fiberglass for ramrods. Oh, the horror.

As gun owners, ANYTHING with a trigger should be accepted if the firearms community as a whole is going to survive.

Let the Left dabble in classism. I refuse to.

PA has had flintlock only season for 49 years. I think its great.
And there would be less Flintlock builders and supply shops today if PA hadnt created it.

 

[smoothshooter]

Younger generations have no interest in traditional muzzleloaders, and the customer base will eventually dry up.

Shooting traditional muzzleloaders require an attention span far exceeding the capabilities of 80% of the under 40 crowd.

 

[Stantheman86]

Who knows, we may see a 2nd resurgence of muzzleloading because of skyrocketing ammo costs, legislation, crippling hoops to jump through......so muzzleloading may become the "last holdout " of the shooting sports like it is in a lot of European countries

If a front stuffer is all you can get, or afford to shoot, people will learn to love them

But even then, mass produced Italian stuff will be "the market ", the average guy who can't afford .223 isn't going to buy a $8000 custom Hawken, he'll just get a Pedersoli for $1200 after he sells his AR

Since the OP asked about "custom " rifles , I think they will hold on as a niche market and the gun makers will have a "main gig" and will make rifles as a side job

If I were young , in my 20s or 30s , I'd be very hesitant to plunge into an apprenticeship to learn how to make high end muzzleloaders, or any gun for that matter, because it's a dice roll to jump in with both feet and risk your family's livelihood in a field that may not have a market in 5 or 10 years

 

[maillemaker]

I did not slog through all 11 pages, but figured I'd drop in my 2 cents.

First, I think in this country there is an increased stratification between the well-off and the not-so-well off. I feel like my standard of living is in decline even though I'm in the top 25% of wage earners. All my life I have been able to buy new cars (1992 Mustang LX, 1995 Mustang GT, 2002 Dodge Caravan, 2015 Ram 1500), and now for the first time in my life I feel like I can't afford a reasonable new car.

So for a lot of craftsmen, they are going to have to learn to chase the high-end customer. If you're in the business of selling $2000+ toys you will need to find a way into the clientele who have disposable income for such things.

I agree the younger generation is less and less interested in firearms. They also have less and less disposable income. Many of my friends that shoot in the N-SSA with me got started in the 1950s when they were in their 20's. You'll be hard-pressed to find someone in their 20's today with the disposable income to come to a skirmish. You're looking at $1000+ in equipment to get started. It costs me about $300 to go to a skirmish for a weekend when I sum up gas, camping fees, ammo, food, and entry fees. Now I am shooting 4 guns. You could probably go to a shoot for $100 in total expenses but even this would be a luxury for many young people today.

Young people today are going to college and coming out with $80K+ in debt right out of the gate. I have a 16-year-old and a 14-year-old so college is on the horizon. Our local university costs about $22K per year if your kids live at home. So a college education is going to run you close to $90K. Fortunately, they have both gotten into a high school program where they will earn 2 years of college credit while in high school, for free, so if they go to college here in state hopefully they can get away for only $45K in debt.

Then I learned that there are 2 kinds of student loans. Subsidized and Unsubsidized. Subsidized are for poor people so I probably won't qualify. Subsidized loans you don't have interest and start paying back when you graduate. Unsubsidized loans you start paying interest the day you sign for the loan. We are going to help out as best we can but we can probably only contribute $1000 a month so there are going to be loans.

The best way to get kids shooting is to take them shooting. I have both of my kids on my N-SSA shooting team. My daughter has been on the team for 2 years now and my son just joined. They love going camping and shooting with their dad at N-SSA competitions. And of course my kids have been shooting since they were little outside of that.

 

[waksupi]

Just for perspective, when I was working for Serengeti Rifles around ten years ago, the base price for a custom rifle was $15,000, and went up from there. I think the most expensive one I ever did was $35,000. We in the muzzleloading realm are cheap by nature.

 

[Stantheman86]

I did not slog through all 11 pages, but figured I'd drop in my 2 cents.

First, I think in this country there is an increased stratification between the well-off and the not-so-well off. I feel like my standard of living is in decline even though I'm in the top 25% of wage earners. All my life I have been able to buy new cars (1992 Mustang LX, 1995 Mustang GT, 2002 Dodge Caravan, 2015 Ram 1500), and now for the first time in my life I feel like I can't afford a reasonable new car.

So for a lot of craftsmen, they are going to have to learn to chase the high-end customer. If you're in the business of selling $2000+ toys you will need to find a way into the clientele who have disposable income for such things.

I agree the younger generation is less and less interested in firearms. They also have less and less disposable income. Many of my friends that shoot in the N-SSA with me got started in the 1950s when they were in their 20's. You'll be hard-pressed to find someone in their 20's today with the disposable income to come to a skirmish. You're looking at $1000+ in equipment to get started. It costs me about $300 to go to a skirmish for a weekend when I sum up gas, camping fees, ammo, food, and entry fees. Now I am shooting 4 guns. You could probably go to a shoot for $100 in total expenses but even this would be a luxury for many young people today.

Young people today are going to college and coming out with $80K+ in debt right out of the gate. I have a 16-year-old and a 14-year-old so college is on the horizon. Our local university costs about $22K per year if your kids live at home. So a college education is going to run you close to $90K. Fortunately, they have both gotten into a high school program where they will earn 2 years of college credit while in high school, for free, so if they go to college here in state hopefully they can get away for only $45K in debt.

Then I learned that there are 2 kinds of student loans. Subsidized and Unsubsidized. Subsidized are for poor people so I probably won't qualify. Subsidized loans you don't have interest and start paying back when you graduate. Unsubsidized loans you start paying interest the day you sign for the loan. We are going to help out as best we can but we can probably only contribute $1000 a month so there are going to be loans.

The best way to get kids shooting is to take them shooting. I have both of my kids on my N-SSA shooting team. My daughter has been on the team for 2 years now and my son just joined. They love going camping and shooting with their dad at N-SSA competitions. And of course my kids have been shooting since they were little outside of that.

People like us collect and shoot the guns that 90% of "shooters" want to fire a few rounds through and hand back to us. Then they can go back to playing with their .22 AR15 with a Chinese red dot on it .

I've heard it countless times, "I don't want to mess with that blackpowder stuff" people just don't have the internal motivation to assemble all the gear, accoutrements, size bullets, work up patch/ball combos , etc.

They want to just buy ammo and blast

Cap and Ball revolvers have more "cool factor" for young people and I know plenty of AR guys who bought one just because "they're cool" but I never hear of them taking them out to shoot. They just have them, they're not BP enthusiasts. Plus it's a $300 impulse buy, not a $6000 custom Pennsylvania flint long rifle

People also buy Maybachs and Bentleys, there's always a market for the super high end stuff for wealthy people. There will always be people looking for $50,000 custom double rifles. I just think fewer and fewer people are looking for high end muzzleloaders . As the era of original muzzleloading gets farther and farther away, the average shooters interest in that stuff fades unless the laws in your country leave you with no choice

Shooting guns like Krags, Trapdoors and Garands is like stepping back to ancient technology at this point, so the motivation to shoot muzzleloaders is less for even people who are into history. Because you can get pre-98 antiques for less than a Pedersoli

We shoot muzzleloaders by choice in the US , in some European countries muzzleloaders are all they have easy access to.

Like you said, the Economy is a factor. We're going into year 2 of Putin threatening us and fears over a war with China. Even wealthy people are putting their money in other places besides Williamsburg Riflesmith long rifles.

The market is fickle, people are being cautious with their money , young people don't care as much about history, they don't care about relatives that fought in the Civil War, or any other war or have any desire to connect with the past through reeanacting. None of this is good for luxury or niche markets like muzzleloading

 

[BS2366]

Younger generations have no interest in traditional muzzleloaders, and the customer base will eventually dry up.

I'm 42 and just got into traditional muzzleloading. Always knew about them but was never around them much. My dad had a TC New Englander when I was a kid. I just remember it being a muzzleloader and he put things down the barrel. I've had in lines and always been into all other types of firearms. What got me into traditional is my wife and I were watching an old episode of How It's Made about a month ago. They were at a late 90's shot show and a showed some traditional muzzleloaders. I've always wanted a kit and found a CVA mountain on here. Then last week I bought CVA Hawken from a member. Saturday I bought a 45 Kentucky at a gun show. 2 weeks ago I bought a CVA Hawken stock. If I see a good deal on one, I'm going to buy it. I have all kinds of hobbies and right now this one has my interest.

 

[BS2366]

My sons, nieces and nephews can't even spell the word Firearm.

The younger generation has no interest in guns.

When I die, that's it.

Hello Captain Crunch.

They don't even like cars or want to drive. All about social media. I've been into cars, hunting, firearms, and the outdoors my entire life. What are these kids gonna do when they get older? Nothing?

 

[maillemaker]

They don't even like cars or want to drive. All about social media. I've been into cars, hunting, firearms, and the outdoors my entire life. What are these kids gonna do when they get older? Nothing?

They will continue to play computer games.

I'm young enough that I grew up with computer games (Atari 2600 anyone?).

I figure when we are in the old folks' home we will be having LAN parties and you will hear a bunch of old men cursing at each other up and down the hallway while they strafe each other with machine guns in Call of Duty.

But back to the kids. I hope that there is something innate in the human person to desire real experience over just reading about it, watching a video about it, or experiencing a simulation of it. Living History, to whatever extent you do it, is something special. You can read about what it's like to wear itchy wool Civil War issued trousers, but until you actually wear them what do you really know?

I feel super fortunate that both my kids are excited about being on daddy's black powder shooting team and love the experience of going camping with daddy and shooting black powder guns. In my heart of hearts I fear our organization will be gone within a decade but if I get a few years with them before they are off to college it will be something we will all remember the rest of our lives.

 

[vintovka]

They will continue to play computer games.

I think the way things are going life may get real tough real fast. Just eating may be a luxury.

 

[smoothshooter]

People like us collect and shoot the guns that 90% of "shooters" want to fire a few rounds through and hand back to us. Then they can go back to playing with their .22 AR15 with a Chinese red dot on it .

I've heard it countless times, "I don't want to mess with that blackpowder stuff" people just don't have the internal motivation to assemble all the gear, accoutrements, size bullets, work up patch/ball combos , etc.

They want to just buy ammo and blast

Cap and Ball revolvers have more "cool factor" for young people and I know plenty of AR guys who bought one just because "they're cool" but I never hear of them taking them out to shoot. They just have them, they're not BP enthusiasts. Plus it's a $300 impulse buy, not a $6000 custom Pennsylvania flint long rifle

People also buy Maybachs and Bentleys, there's always a market for the super high end stuff for wealthy people. There will always be people looking for $50,000 custom double rifles. I just think fewer and fewer people are looking for high end muzzleloaders . As the era of original muzzleloading gets farther and farther away, the average shooters interest in that stuff fades unless the laws in your country leave you with no choice

Shooting guns like Krags, Trapdoors and Garands is like stepping back to ancient technology at this point, so the motivation to shoot muzzleloaders is less for even people who are into history. Because you can get pre-98 antiques for less than a Pedersoli

We shoot muzzleloaders by choice in the US , in some European countries muzzleloaders are all they have easy access to.

Like you said, the Economy is a factor. We're going into year 2 of Putin threatening us and fears over a war with China. Even wealthy people are putting their money in other places besides Williamsburg Riflesmith long rifles.

The market is fickle, people are being cautious with their money , young people don't care as much about history, they don't care about relatives that fought in the Civil War, or any other war or have any desire to connect with the past through reeanacting. None of this is good for luxury or niche markets like muzzleloading

Lack of outdoor places to shoot is a big damper to all the shooting sports.

 

[vintovka]

Building or shooting ML may be no fun at all on a empty stomach. Inflation is affecting everything we do should be our highest concern. Prices are up an average of 30% and climbing. and menus are changing fast.

 

[brushblind]

The Play Station, Gameboy generation can't get off the couch long enough to learn anything useful! They'll sell their soul for 30 more minutes of game play! They don't usually reach adulthood until they're 50 yrs. old but then realize they wasted their best yrs. and remain unskilled and useless! Video games, the most useless thing ever conceived by humanity!

 

[sussexmuzllodr]

Lay off my 1993 TC new englander plastic stock.....seriously...I would never part with that gun...its been good to me..because i have been good to it. I will take on any young wipper snapper with his inline....and put his heart in my back pocket.....thank you...

 

[maillemaker]

Video games are insideous. I say this as someone who has invested hundreds of hours in games. The games give you a false sense of accomplishment. You will spend hundreds of hours "leveling up" in game to earn things for your character.

But on the other hand, what else can you spend $50 on and get 400 hours of entertainment out of?