If you have a chronograph, could you shoot your standard load of 3f, then work up a load with 4f that give you the same fps? I have no idea, but it seems if you work it up that way, you would be in a safe zone. Experts, pls comment cause I aint no expert.
A chronograph is not a pressure gauge, and it is only one part of developing an efficient, effective load. It will give you an indication, in the form of an accurate read on velocity but, velocity can actually remain the same or even go down with higher pressure. As I said before there are a lot of factors affecting pressure in a gun barrel, to name a few: friction from actual bore diameter difference to projectile diameter, roughness of the interior of the barrel, fouling, patch thickness and material if you are using one, how tightly the projectile is seated, how hot the cap is on a percussion gun, among others.
If you are using a chronograph and you reach a plateau in velocity, or a diminishing return on the amount of powder to velocity, you can logically determine you have reached the peak point of efficiency with that powder in that load and you'll only be adding pressure and wasting powder to add more.
There are other ways of getting an idea of pressure, like recoil, and in a percussion gun, given everything else is in proper condition (springs, nipples, etc.) blowback through the nipple.
Adding all of these things together with a chronograph reading, you can begin to build a picture of what your particular rifle is doing, but without an actual pressure barrel with a piezoelectric gauge or copper/lead crusher, you are never going to know exactly what pressure any given load is going to provide. Even with the testing equipment, the reading will only apply to that barrel, and is why data producers say to reduce by 10% their data when loading for your particular gun.
Thing to do is start out low and work your way up making careful observations, taking into consideration things like, as fouling builds, so will pressure, with the same load, given the resistance created. Problem comes because a lot of folks don't have this kind of time, patience or attention to detail. Hence the lawyers get involved.
Fact of the matter is the old timers stopped putting powder in when they no longer got a good return on their investment and that was their "load". They used the least amount of powder they could to get the results they needed, whether that powder be 2f, 3f or 4f
Take a look at Lyman's regular reloading manuals, they are one example of a good explanation of pressure.