Will the bottom fall out of the custom build business?

[user 52391]

This is a hobby based on antiquity. It will ebb and flow. One Hollywood movie or video game could create a mania as it did for Dirty Harry's .44 or Colt Pythons. Working against all shooting sports is population growth and land restrictions. ML will hang on. Witness antique and classic aviation, thriving despite general aviation airport closures and insane fuel and airframe prices. Something will always change ML's popularity. Beware the black swan.

This MOST people were using those old, outdated and obsolete blackpowder guns as doorstopper's by the early 20th century...And the interest in them did eventually come back into vogue, and will again. History does tend to repeat itself.

 

[Bushfire]

This MOST people were using those old, outdated and obsolete blackpowder guns as doorstopper's by the early 20th century...And the interest in them did eventually come back into vogue, and will again. History does tend to repeat itself.

I haven't seen too many people into gladius' or flying zeppelins. I believe the bicentenary or your independence gave muzzleloading a good kick. I believe it's a general decline with the occasional uptick. There's almost no one within 20 years of my age shooting BP in Australia.

 

[B P Maniac Shooter]

If it is truly dying out..? Would Kibler and others put so much investment capitol in something they thought they were going to lose..?
CNC equipment is not cheap or all the other stuff they have purchased. But yet they keep expanding their product line. JMHO

I agree.....
Kibler is hurting the custom builders and will continue to do so. Kibler kits are in such demand, you have to wait weeks to get one. He ships kits in a wooden box so the delivery services doesn't destroy them. That's how popular they are.

Benefits of ordering one includes:
1 Price.... Pay once, cry once for $1200-$1300 for a kit you can build yourself within a week..
2. Wait time...No waiting 6 Months or a year to get your gun.
3. It will be an heirloom you can pass down to your kids. ( If they don't sell it otherwise someday )

I don't have a Kibler, but I've handled and shot both the SMR & Colonial Kits..... the owner absolutely LOVES them. Service for those kits are top notch. I've heard nothing but awesome reviews regarding the Kibler products.

Kibler entered this market at the right time. I realize he has spent a lot of $$ on CNC equipment that he has to recover. Therefore, I see him making kits for years to come.
If/when Kibler decides to make a 1780's style smoothbore kit, he probably will never get caught up with the orders.

 

[vintovka]

Apparently it was on the tv show Gun Stories that aired on 2/15/23..
Investarms Hawken I’m told…

View attachment 201521

I’m thinking more along the lines of a Hacker Hawken myself…

Somebody go ahead and say it….
Nice wood….

Woodstove comes to mind. Sorry to say interest in sporting stuff comes and goes. The number of Booths at the SHOT show from year to year tell the tale all too clearly. The ML section has gone on rather weakly with Uberti still leading the pack. The Paint Ball booths went from overwhelming to virtually non existent.

 

[smo]

I was just texting with a Guy in Wisconsin he had just returned from the Echo’s of the Past show in OshKosh and he said attendance was way down there as well..

 

[garypl]

It's okay, you can wear your hair anyway you like. We will try not to judge you too much. ;o)

I wish I had enough hair to make a bun(not that I would be caught dead with one!)

 

[Art Caputo]

Hand it down to who? That's the real problem!

Perhaps, for some of us…But who knows, and, will it really matter?

 

[Sudsy]

I'm pricing up my football card collection right now in order to sell it off (just retired and downsizing)
Mostly mid 1990's stuff, Marino, Emmitt Smith, Brett Favre, Barry Sanders, Jerry Rice ...... that era.
Cards that were worth $300 are now worth $30 or less.

So yes, bottoms can drop out of a market.
And it pretty much sucks if you're invested in it

 

[arjay]

Any image where the guy is wearing the wig with the be-ribboned pony tail. Any pony tail can be put up as a bun.

Most likely a wig.

 

[Patched]

I write this as an elderly person who have lived muzzleloading since the early 70's. I started early in making "scratch" muzzleloaders meaning rough cast metal parts, a rifled barrel and a blank. Over that time I found cast parts harder to find and the quality of blank wood has gone down with cost going thru the ceiling. All this said, if the demand is there, someone will take up the manufacturing of those part. So, is there going to be craftsmen making custom ML'ers? A few of the best, but if you are a modern gun maker you really need to be machinist. If you are a muzzleloader maker all you need is some carving tools, hack saw, sandpaper, etc. and when you get done just maybe it will be worth the parts you put into it, but the sense of ratification of completing something of beauty is there. My point is this: There are so many kit and part muzzleloader builders out there, my perspective is the money for a craftsmen will be few and far between. Those are the ones which will hold or increase in valve and not much at that.

If you want a custom muzzleloader build it from a kit or scratch. Some kits do almost everything for you. Decorate it up by engraving, carving the stock, checkering it, brass wire inlays, or what ever, and sign it. Give it to a member of the family who has posterity who may enjoy it. That is after you are done with it. Or just buy a custom gun, which will doubtful be a good investment. Write up a history of times with that gun with your thoughts. With the internet you can learn to do anything nowdays.

I made a lot of scratch guns of which went to family members. They were made with the best parts I could purchase and the best curly maple blanks. The parts for the first guns cost around $300.00. Maybe those guns would fetch double the parts costs, but now to make those same guns the parts are nearing $1000.00 to build and just maybe the gun would fetch $900.00. That is conjecture at this point. Some of these custom or kit guns are like purchasing a new car. Shoot it or drive it off the showroom floor and it's worth half what you paid for it. That is my thoughts on it anyway. I'm sure others have differing opinions.

Your ML experience mirrors mine exactly….started with a TC Hawken kit then GRRW kits then about 7 scratch guns…in 1975 parts for a gun cost $350….similar parts today $900-$1000.
Finished my last gun 3 months ago…. I’m guessing I could sell it for the cost of the parts….
The reason I took up scratch building was to have nice guns exactly as I wanted because I couldn’t afford or justify the expense of a custom build while raising my family…

ML guns by well known builders, Bivins, Hershel House etc even Kibler may fetch high dollars in a shrinking niche market…but in a smart phone AR15 world, too few will be interested, have the money or time to explore this Americana history.

Anti-2A sentiment for years targeting our youth has had an impact too.

 

[Tenring]

When it comes to custom kit guns such as Kibler‘s you are getting the presision inlay work from a Haas Milling Machine that will have way better and more exact fitment than any human could ever do rather than waiting months and years for a custom builder to do And have to put A lot of down money and wait. I had one Rifle built by a well known builder everyone would recognize if I said his name and it took 16 months and he had such a large back load he rushed my rifle yea rush 16 months and it was really not what we had discussed and the inlay work was a hair little chankie looking. I would rather have a hi end kit Gun and do it myself.

 

[Jedidiah]

Your ML experience mirrors mine exactly….started with a TC Hawken kit then GRRW kits then about 7 scratch guns…in 1975 parts for a gun cost $350….similar parts today $900-$1000.
Finished my last gun 3 months ago…. I’m guessing I could sell it for the cost of the parts….
The reason I took up scratch building was to have nice guns exactly as I wanted because I couldn’t afford or justify the expense of a custom build while raising my family…

ML guns by well known builders, Bivins, Hershel House etc even Kibler may fetch high dollars in a shrinking niche market…but in a smart phone AR15 world, too few will be interested, have the money or time to explore this Americana history.

Anti-2A sentiment for years targeting our youth has had an impact too.

Many young people today are into "easy", and there is nothing easy about ML shooting. It is work to tune, load, fire, clean & maintain. Sure, you can say how much you "love" all the work about it, yada yada yada, and I have a 'bridge I want to sell you too". I have ML's, I love the history etc. but I do not shoot them as much as other "platforms' because frankly, they are a pita to use & maintain, and at 72 I am now looking for "easy" too, not more work. When I can take an unmentionable, and shoot, come home and run a bore snake and a few patches down it, wipe it off and its good to go, please, not even close to what you must do to really clean a traditional ML and do it properly. IMHO

 

[Jedidiah]

I haven't seen too many people into gladius' or flying zeppelins. I believe the bicentenary or your independence gave muzzleloading a good kick. I believe it's a general decline with the occasional uptick. There's almost no one within 20 years of my age shooting BP in Australia.

It is the same everywhere if we are honest with ourselves.

 

[Jedidiah]

When it comes to custom kit guns such as Kibler‘s you are getting the presision inlay work from a Haas Milling Machine that will have way better and more exact fitment than any human could ever do rather than waiting months and years for a custom builder to do And have to put A lot of down money and wait. I had one Rifle built by a well known builder everyone would recognize if I said his name and it took 16 months and he had such a large back load he rushed my rifle yea rush 16 months and it was really not what we had discussed and the inlay work was a hair little chankie looking. I would rather have a hi end kit Gun and do it myself.

Ok, I hear you and I agree with 98% of what you have said, but I would like to mention that i have known people that would not be happy with what some one else built if if was completed by Herschel House! They are those few people that just seem to like to complain about everything and anything. People still whine about the "good old" days and how firearms were better etc, when if you take the time to really look at what we are capable of, we make better firearms today, with better material, stronger steels and alloys and CNC machining that the best artisans would be hard pressed to match in quality. In hundreds of differetn models that would never have been possible in the past. IMHO. There are still 2-3 yr waiting lists for an unmentionable Double rifle from one or two of the few remaining custom gun makers that will make one. Starting prices $12K and up with $20-25 being average! I guess a custom ML if you really want to go that way is out there and available. However, I think a Kibler kit, put together by a knowledgeable competent "craftsman" will match them in every way. The heavy lifting is done for you. You can still have it carved, inlayed, engraved etc. Those who say they could tell the difference? Well, I 'd like to be there when that contest happens? They probably know how many angels can dance on the head of a pin too. LOL

 

[rusticbob]

I can understand a custom built gun if you need it. Human beings come in all sizes. Tall guys with long arms, and short guys and gals with shorter arms. I have been fortunate to have been born absolutely average, 5’10”, 180lbs,(ok, maybe 190). Factory made guns have always fit me fine, that’s why I shoot T/C and Pedersoli. They go bang when I pull the trigger, and sometimes I hit the target.
I say to each his own, it’s your money, spend it. You can’t take it with you.

 

[Jedidiah]

More to life and muzzleloading than Kibler kit rifles. It's my money, I work hard for it and I'll spend it on whatever I want. And I won't judge others on how they spend their money....

Yup, kinda the American way. Like I said, refer to #A. There are many people thankfully who think there is more to life than spending every dollar "they made however they want". Where would the world be without them? No Charities, No Volunteers, No one supporting anything or anyone else? Sounds like a great world to me???

 

[Comfortably_Numb]

Kibler never hurt my business. People that can't afford my stuff buy Kibler kits. That doesn't hurt me as they were never going to give me any business anyway. In fact he brought me a lot of business. I have put alot of his kits together for people and decorated them. I also get paid to teach people how to build them. Nothing but a big win win win for eberybody.

 

[Jedidiah]

Many have not mentally caught up with the severe damage inflation has, and continues to, inflict on us. I still see folks selling nice finished rifles for the cost of a kibler kit. Few have a true feeling for the value of a dollar right now.

Have you ever noticed that when you are "selling" everyone wants it for less and when YOU are buying, you want it for less?

 

[Jedidiah]

I can understand a custom built gun if you need it. Human beings come in all sizes. Tall guys with long arms, and short guys and gals with shorter arms. I have been fortunate to have been born absolutely average, 5’10”, 180lbs,(ok, maybe 190). Factory made guns have always fit me fine, that’s why I shoot T/C and Pedersoli. They go bang when I pull the trigger, and sometimes I hit the target.
I say to each his own, it’s your money, spend it. You can’t take it with you.

That deer does not know whether it was a kit gun, a custom or off the rack!

 

[Jedidiah]

Kibler never hurt my business. People that can't afford my stuff buy Kibler kits. That doesn't hurt me as they were never going to give me any business anyway. In fact he brought me a lot of business. I have put alot of his kits together for people and decorated them. I also get paid to teach people how to build them. Nothing but a big win win win for eberybody.

I agree, I think it is a good thing. Many people, myself included, do not have the skill set, tools, workshop etc to build a quality rifle. So whether is starts as parts, or a kit which is just parts picked for you, or a scratch build, its all good to have people who know how to put it all together properly. IMHO